Survival matters more than performance
I recently spoke with Luca Dell’Anna, author of 11 books on long-term thinking, risk, and behavioral psychology. We discussed ergodicity — not just the idea that survival is necessary for long-term success, but that it is the defining constraint. In business, individuals and organizations often optimize for short-term growth, but that pursuit typically increases risk — ironically reducing the probability of ever realizing long-term exponential outcomes.
“I’m not just saying survival matters,” Luca told me. “I’m saying it matters more than performance — at least over long time frames.” In other words: staying in the game beats winning early.
